Bitcoin insights, price analysis, and market signals from Adler AM. Weekly context, on-chain data, and actionable BTC research for investors and traders.
Bitcoin Net Realized PnL hits cycle lows while Supply Active 30D Change compresses. Selling exhaustion signal - watch for PnL 7DMA reversal.
ETF flows turned positive after February's capitulation, but the cohort stays underwater. Realized Price at $79,962 is the key resistance to watch.
STH Profitability Ratio tracks if recent BTC buyers are in profit. A 1.0 cross signals a regime shift - learn the rules and filter false signals.
UTXO Age Bands show each cohort's cost basis by holding duration. Learn to read rising vs. falling bands, spot support levels, and filter false signals.
Bitcoin LTH Realized Supply at 8.05M BTC, Z-Score 2.66, down 5.5% from peak. Cycle comparison with C2016 and C2020 - key signals for March 2026.
STH and LTH Realized Price are the two cost-basis layers that define bull and bear structure in Bitcoin. Learn the crossover signal, current levels, and how to trade each zone.`
STH Realized Price = avg cost basis of coins held under 155 days. Above it = bull structure. Below = bear. Formula, live data, 4 cycle examples.
Has the 4-year Bitcoin cycle broken? Discover why Global M2 liquidity and structural ETF demand now overpower the mechanical halving supply shock.
An anomalous BTC outflow was recorded this week: -31,900 BTC in a single day, which historically corresponds to large-scale accumulation. At the same time, stablecoin netflow turned negative - liquidity began leaving exchanges alongside BTC.
The structural and regime indicators have moved into positive territory in sync for the first time in three months. The only remaining drag - the funding rate - is still negative.
Discover how Global M2 and Spot ETF netflows are overriding the traditional Bitcoin halving cycle. Learn the thresholds, SQL formulas, and how to trade them.
Funding has been persistently negative for the second week in a row - short positions dominate the derivatives structure. Open interest has declined from $47.6B to $20.8B, signaling a major deleveraging event - the market has unloaded, but sentiment remains bearish.
