Deep Bitcoin on-chain analysis: supply dynamics, holder behavior, exchange flows, and key indicators. Actionable BTC insights from Adler AM.
Supply in Profit compresses to 13.5M BTC. SMA30/SMA90 convergence analysis and bullish cross forecast. Critical price levels and scenarios for Feb-Mar 2026.
This brief compares the current loss regime to November's capitulation. Core thesis: the market has already passed through peak stress, seller pressure is structurally exhausted, and conditions for a local recovery are forming.
This brief confirms the continuation of a negative capital flow regime: the weekly average in negative territory indicates that loss-making sales outweigh profitable ones. Until the 7dMA reaches zero, the market remains in a risk zone.
Short-term holder Net Pressure has dropped into the bottom 5% of its distribution. Price is trading below STH Realized Price, leading to equalization of buying and selling pressure.
Sentiment and on-chain structure are synchronously pointing to market weakness. Short-term holders are underwater, and all key nearby support levels have turned into resistance.
Bitcoin derivatives structure explained: funding rates, open interest, and liquidation levels. How to read futures data to identify bullish or bearish setups.
The financial health index is at a critical threshold, demand-supply balance is weak, and nominal revenues have reached local lows.
Short-term holders have entered a stress regime, price has fallen below their average purchase price, and STH-SOPR (30D) has dropped to 0.98, indicating loss-taking and increased risk of accelerated selling.
The Bitcoin market is in a correction phase with a 30% drawdown from the all-time high. Two on-chain indicators: STH SOPR and P/L Block point to loss realization by participants and deteriorating market sentiment.
The market pulled back from the 125K highs to the current 90K zone with a current drawdown of -27%, while 67% of supply remains in profit.
The current correction of approximately -32% remains the mildest among Bitcoin's bear cycles: with approximately 88% of coins still in unrealized profit, and only about 12% of supply at a loss.
The Bull-index has risen to the 23% zone, while the fast-version has declined to 18% - the FAST < SLOW divergence signals potential problems for bulls.
