Institutional Bitcoin research for serious investors • On-chain • Futures • ETFs • Macro • 10 min/week • Zero guesswork.
The Bitcoin market is in a correction phase with a 30% drawdown from the all-time high. Two on-chain indicators: STH SOPR and P/L Block point to loss realization by participants and deteriorating market sentiment.
After the Federal Reserve's rate cut, the market is attempting to recover, but internal indicators show consolidation and a wait-and-see position among participants rather than confident expansion of impulse.
The market pulled back from the 125K highs to the current 90K zone with a current drawdown of -27%, while 67% of supply remains in profit.
Bitcoin showed a positive 200/20DMA slope for the first time in a month and approached the 52-Week High range amid expectations of a Fed rate cut.
The current correction of approximately -32% remains the mildest among Bitcoin's bear cycles: with approximately 88% of coins still in unrealized profit, and only about 12% of supply at a loss.
The Bull-index has risen to the 23% zone, while the fast-version has declined to 18% - the FAST < SLOW divergence signals potential problems for bulls.
Bitcoin corrected to the level of $92K after the strongest drawdown in this cycle equal to -32% from ATH.
Derivative pressure is maintained above the critical level of 50.
Bitcoin is trading in the $93K zone, with volatility rising to 71% - a reaction to Vanguard's policy shift, which now allows trading of third-party crypto ETFs on its platform.
Average monthly whale inflow to exchanges has dropped to a three-year low, while stablecoin netflow remains in positive territory.
The derivatives market continues to register a shift in pressure toward bulls, with the liquidation dominance oscillator sitting at 32%, reflecting sustained pressure on leveraged buyers.
The cost of holding long positions dropped 18% over 9 hours - from 0.11% to 0.09%. This indicates declining pressure from aggressive buyers.
