Bitcoin has continued to leave exchanges for a month, but average outflows have declined considerably. Futures buyers and sellers are nearly balanced, with neither side holding a clear advantage.
TL;DR
Coins continue to leave exchanges, while the futures market remains balanced. A look at what is behind the sharp decline in outflows and why the positioning index is near zero.
Bitcoin Exchange Netflow 30D SMA
Since September 22, more bitcoin has been leaving exchanges than entering them. The 30-day average net outflow stands at 1.5K BTC per day, down from 3K BTC a week earlier. The decline over the past day occurred because the large September 22 outflow dropped out of the 30-day window, rather than because of new coin inflows to exchanges.
As long as the indicator remains below zero, the supply on exchanges is shrinking. If it rises above zero, coins will begin returning to exchanges and selling pressure from holders will increase.
Bitcoin Positioning index 30D SMA
The index shows who is more active in futures, buyers or sellers, and whether new positions are being opened. Today, the index's 30-day average stands at 0.3, up from -0.5 a week earlier. The indicator reached 7.6 in late August, then stayed slightly below zero from late September onward.
Daily readings ranged from -20.5 to +29 over the past week: there is activity, but no sustained direction. If the average holds above zero while exchange outflows continue, demand will have support in both the spot and futures markets. A return to negative territory alongside coin inflows to exchanges would mean selling pressure is increasing.
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FAQ
Do exchange outflows mean people are buying bitcoin? Outflows show that coins are being transferred from exchanges to personal wallets. This reduces the supply available for immediate sale and is generally interpreted as buying.
Is a positioning index near zero a bad sign? No. Zero means futures buyers and sellers are balanced. A direction will emerge when one side gains a sustained advantage.
Conclusions
Bitcoin has been leaving exchanges for a month, while futures remain balanced. Conditions will improve if outflows continue and the positioning index holds above zero. The main risk is a shift to exchange inflows alongside a drop in the Positioning index below zero. This would mean more coins are available for sale and futures sellers are gaining the upper hand.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
Exchange Netflow - Net BTC moving to and from exchanges across positive and negative flow regimes.
Open Interest (BTC) - Total futures positioning and 7-day BTC-denominated change.
Funding Rates - Perpetual futures funding to track long-side or short-side leverage pressure.
Derivatives - All funding, open-interest, and leverage charts in one view.