The unrealized profit of large short-term holders fell from a record $9.8 billion to $4.6 billion over the past month. Meanwhile, whales sent 10.6K BTC to exchanges on October 20. This is a negative combination for the market: large holders’ profits have declined, while more coins are available to be sold through exchanges.
TL;DR
Short-term whales remain in profit, but their unrealized profit is less than half its September record. A fresh spike in exchange inflows increases the risk of selling.
Bitcoin STH Whale Unrealized Profit and Loss
On August 20, the total unrealized profit of large short-term holders turned positive. On September 22, it reached $9.8 billion, the highest level since 2016. By October 20, profit had fallen by $5.1 billion, or 53%.
A 53% decline in this metric does not mean whales sold half their coins. It means the profit on coins currently held by this group has decreased. If the metric approaches zero, the price will be close to the average purchase price of the group’s coins.
Bitcoin Whale Exchange Inflow
On October 20, whales sent 10,605 BTC to exchanges. This was the largest daily volume since October 8. For comparison, exchange inflows averaged 3,815 BTC per day over the past 30 days. The October 20 volume was 2.8 times that average.
Over the past year, the average was 3,241 BTC per day; the current level is 17% higher. Elevated inflows are not limited to isolated days.
Exchange inflows are generally viewed as a selling signal. On October 7-8, whales sent 29,517 BTC to exchanges, while the price fell 4% over those two days. From October 7 to October 8, short-term whales’ unrealized profit fell from $8.2 billion to $6.1 billion.
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FAQ
Did whales sell 10.6K BTC on October 20? They sent that amount to exchanges - a signal of potential selling.
Does declining unrealized profit mean whales are exiting the market? No. Profit can fall sharply as the price drops, even if holders keep their coins.
Conclusions
The picture is moderately negative for the market. Short-term whales’ unrealized profit has fallen 53% from its record. Meanwhile, on October 20, they sent 10.6K BTC to exchanges, compared with an average daily volume of 3.8K BTC.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
STH-SOPR - Short-term holder profit/loss behavior around the 1.0 breakeven threshold.
Exchange Netflow - Net BTC moving to and from exchanges across positive and negative flow regimes.
LTH vs STH Supply - Supply split between long- and short-term holders to track accumulation and distribution.
Supply in Profit - Share of circulating supply in profit as a cycle-phase and euphoria gauge.
Holder Behavior - All holder profitability and supply-cohort charts in one view.