Short-term holders hold 4.08 million BTC - the highest level since mid-June.
TL;DR
Short-term holder supply is growing. I examine where the line between profit and loss lies for this group.
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Supply
Short-term holders currently hold 4.08 million BTC - the highest level since mid-June. Since the July 29 low, their holdings have increased by 422K BTC, or 12%. They added 154K BTC in the first two weeks of October, including 48K over the past week.
New participants are entering the market, buying Bitcoin in the $82K-86K range. As long as these holdings keep growing, the inflow of new buyers continues. A downturn in the indicator would mean this inflow has slowed.
Bitcoin: Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis Multiples
As of October 16, Bitcoin is trading at $82.1K, while short-term holders’ average cost basis is $74.9K. Their unrealized profit cushion has narrowed from 16% to 10% as the price declined and their average cost basis rose.
The $74.9K level separates the group’s unrealized profit from loss. Bitcoin has traded above the STH cost basis since August 20, and the current gap is $7.2K. The cost basis is rising because new buyers are entering at $82K-86K. As more buyers enter, the average cost basis moves closer to the current price.
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FAQ
Does an increase in short-term holder supply mean more selling? No. The indicator tracks the amount of recently moved BTC and is interpreted as the amount of coins purchased by new market participants.
If the price is above $74.9K, are all short-term holders in profit? No. Those who bought above the current price are holding unrealized losses. The average cost basis shows the group’s overall position, rather than each participant’s individual result.
Conclusions
Short-term holders retain an aggregate unrealized profit of 10%, while their holdings have grown to 4.08 million BTC. Renewed price growth would increase their profit cushion relative to their average purchase price.
The main risk is a drop below the STH cost basis, currently $74.9K. The group would then move into an unrealized loss, which could increase selling pressure. The amount of BTC held by this group is now at its highest since mid-June.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
LTH vs STH Supply - Supply split between long- and short-term holders to track accumulation and distribution.
STH-SOPR - Short-term holder profit/loss behavior around the 1.0 breakeven threshold.
Supply in Profit - Share of circulating supply in profit as a cycle-phase and euphoria gauge.
Holder Behavior - All holder profitability and supply-cohort charts in one view.