Bitcoin is trading 72% above the average cost basis of coins held by long-term holders. By this measure, the cohort has remained in profit since January 2023. Meanwhile, its average cost basis has been gradually declining since early August.
TL;DR
Long-term holders have remained in profit for almost four years and retain a substantial cushion above their average cost basis. This issue examines what this trend means.
Bitcoin LTH Realized Price
On October 13, Bitcoin is trading at $83.6K, while the average cost basis of coins held by long-term holders stands at $48.6K. The last time the price was below this level was January 13, 2023. Since then, its closest approach to the LTH cost basis was in March 2023.
From October 6 to October 13, BTC declined from $85.8K to $83.6K, while the average cost basis of coins held by long-term holders remained nearly unchanged at $48.6K. The cohort will move into loss if Bitcoin falls below its cost basis. As long as BTC trades above this level, long-term holders retain a substantial unrealized profit cushion.
Bitcoin LTH Realized Price 7D Change
The average cost basis peaked at $49.5K on July 30 and has since declined by 1.7%. Since August 1, the weekly change has been negative on 60 of 74 days. The largest weekly decline was 0.34% on August 25. The indicator currently stands at -0.06%.
The decline in LTH holdings remains moderate. Since August, the weekly change has not fallen below -0.34%. More negative readings will indicate an acceleration in selling. A return above zero will indicate that this cohort is accumulating coins.
Outperform Buy & Hold with a rules-based strategy. One weekly action, clear triggers, and invalidation levels. No guessing. Get access.
FAQ
Does a decline in LTH Realized Price indicate shrinking holdings or increased selling? No. The indicator reflects changes in the average cost basis of LTH coins.
What is the current unrealized profit for LTH? With BTC at $83.6K and an average cost basis of $48.6K, it stands at 72%. This is the average for the entire cohort; individual holders may be at a loss.
Conclusion
Bitcoin has remained above the average LTH cost basis since January 2023. At the current price of $83.6K, the cohort’s unrealized profit cushion stands at 72%. Its current average cost basis is $48.6K. If the price falls below that level, the cohort will move into an unrealized loss.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
LTH vs STH Supply - Supply split between long- and short-term holders to track accumulation and distribution.
LTH-SOPR - Long-term holder profit/loss realization around the 1.0 breakeven threshold.
Realized Price - Aggregate on-chain cost basis compared with BTC price and long-term trend.
NUPL - Net unrealized profit/loss across holders, mapped into cycle sentiment phases.
Holder Behavior - All holder profitability and supply-cohort charts in one view.