The share of new capital in Bitcoin has risen from 6.6% in early July to 11.2%. New buyers have an 11% unrealized profit cushion.
TL;DR
New money is gradually returning to Bitcoin. A look at how well short-term holders are positioned at the current price.
Bitcoin New Investors
As of October 21, new investors account for 11.2% of capital. On July 5, that share fell to 6.6%, its lowest level this year. Since then, new money has entered the network steadily, without sharp spikes: by the end of September, the share had risen to 10.4%.
Inflows remain more modest than in 2024 and 2025, when the share rose above 20%. If the indicator falls back below 10%, it will mean that new capital inflows have stalled. A rise above the October high of 11.5% will show that demand from new buyers is strengthening.
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders MVRV
Bitcoin is trading at $83K, while short-term holders' average purchase price is $75.1K. This group has been in profit since August 20, for 63 consecutive days. Its profit cushion is now 11%. On October 5, it reached 16%.
The average purchase price has risen from $67.9K on August 1 to $75.1K. This is a direct consequence of the first chart: new participants are buying at higher prices. As a result, without price appreciation, the profit cushion gradually shrinks. If Bitcoin falls below $75.1K, short-term holders will move into a loss.
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FAQ
If the group is in profit, are all short-term holders in profit? No. Those who bought above the current price are already at a loss. The average purchase price does not show each holder's individual return.
Does a rising share of new investors mean the price will definitely rise? No. It shows that new money is returning to the network. Price direction also depends on how other holders behave.
Conclusions
New capital is returning to Bitcoin, and short-term holders remain in profit with an 11% cushion. A rise in price and a further increase in new investors' share will strengthen their position. The main risk is a drop below $75.1K. This would mean that recent buyers are at a loss, and selling pressure from this group could increase.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
STH-SOPR - Short-term holder profit/loss behavior around the 1.0 breakeven threshold.
LTH vs STH Supply - Supply split between long- and short-term holders to track accumulation and distribution.
Supply in Profit - Share of circulating supply in profit as a cycle-phase and euphoria gauge.
Realized Price - Aggregate on-chain cost basis compared with BTC price and long-term trend.
Holder Behavior - All holder profitability and supply-cohort charts in one view.