Bitcoin is entering a zone that preceded the main capitulation phase in 2022. Net Realized P/L has dropped 97% from peaks and reached near-zero levels - exactly as it did before the decline from $30K to $16K.
Learn how MVRV Z-Score works, key thresholds, common mistakes, ETF impact, and a practical multi-indicator framework with real historical examples.
Trend Pulse shifted from Neutral to Bear - both signals (14D return and SMA30 vs SMA200) are negative. Quarterly return of -19% confirms macro weakness without signs of extreme capitulation.
The $90K zone breakdown was accompanied by anomalous exchange inflows - sellers prepared in advance. Now SOPR=1.0 acts as resistance, not support.
Price is testing the $89.8-90K zone - the cost basis of the freshest buyers. Holding this level is critical for stabilization; a breakdown means two cohorts go underwater simultaneously.
Sellers have regained control on derivatives after several weeks of buyer dominance, while US spot is not providing counter-demand - both signals point to a risk-off regime.
Learn how Long-Term and Short-Term Holders shape Bitcoin price. Master the Liquidity Pressure Model to identify market tops, bottoms & structural risk.
Overheated sentiment in the 80% zone ended with a $205M long liquidation cascade and a regime change.
STH discount has narrowed to minimum - price has nearly caught up with cost basis. This is a decision zone: either a return to premium or a new wave of pressure.
BTC price is below the average purchase price of short-term investors, putting them at a loss. Both charts show the same picture: when price approaches the STH breakeven point, the market will face a wave of sellers looking to exit at zero.
Smoothed positioning has moved into a sustained bullish zone for the first time in three months. Sentiment confirms the local regime shift.
Learn how Bitcoin NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) works: formula, historical zones, cycle signals, and how to combine with MVRV for better market timing.
