Realized Profit vs Unrealized Profit: What's the Difference?
Understand the UTXO mechanics behind realized vs unrealized profit, how NUPL is built, and how to use these signals for Bitcoin market cycle analysis.
Understand the UTXO mechanics behind realized vs unrealized profit, how NUPL is built, and how to use these signals for Bitcoin market cycle analysis.
New 30-day pressure low, but price held. Buyers absorbing supply at key support.
Bitcoin is entering a zone that preceded the main capitulation phase in 2022. Net Realized P/L has dropped 97% from peaks and reached near-zero levels - exactly as it did before the decline from $30K to $16K.
Learn how MVRV Z-Score works, key thresholds, common mistakes, ETF impact, and a practical multi-indicator framework with real historical examples.
Trend Pulse shifted from Neutral to Bear - both signals (14D return and SMA30 vs SMA200) are negative. Quarterly return of -19% confirms macro weakness without signs of extreme capitulation.
The $90K zone breakdown was accompanied by anomalous exchange inflows - sellers prepared in advance. Now SOPR=1.0 acts as resistance, not support.
Price is testing the $89.8-90K zone - the cost basis of the freshest buyers. Holding this level is critical for stabilization; a breakdown means two cohorts go underwater simultaneously.
Sellers have regained control on derivatives after several weeks of buyer dominance, while US spot is not providing counter-demand - both signals point to a risk-off regime.
Learn how Long-Term and Short-Term Holders shape Bitcoin price. Master the Liquidity Pressure Model to identify market tops, bottoms & structural risk.
Overheated sentiment in the 80% zone ended with a $205M long liquidation cascade and a regime change.
STH discount has narrowed to minimum - price has nearly caught up with cost basis. This is a decision zone: either a return to premium or a new wave of pressure.
BTC price is below the average purchase price of short-term investors, putting them at a loss. Both charts show the same picture: when price approaches the STH breakeven point, the market will face a wave of sellers looking to exit at zero.