🎧 Morning Brief #139 - audio debate on today’s market setup
The market enters April under sustained selling pressure: both indicators - Net Realized Profit/Loss and STH SOPR - are signaling a dominance of loss-realizing activity against the backdrop of BTC's ongoing correction.
TL;DR
Short-term holders continue to realize losses: the 7DMA Net Realized P/L has dropped to -$410M, while STH SOPR has held below 1.0 for nine consecutive days. This points to a persistent loss-driven unloading by short-term capital. For pressure to ease, both indicators need to return to neutral levels.
Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss
The metric reflects the total realized P/L of all coins moved on-chain: green bars represent net profit, purple bars represent net loss.
The 7DMA Net Realized P/L as of early April came in at -$410M - a deterioration of $154M over the week. This shows that loss-selling pressure has intensified again. The deepest 7DMA reading in Q1 was recorded on February 7 at -$1.99B. The quarterly peak in positive flow was observed on January 19, reaching +$394M, meaning the market underwent a wide reversal in this metric over the course of the quarter.
In terms of cumulative negative Net Realized P/L, the current phase still falls notably short of the 2021-2022 bear market. From November 2021 through December 2022, the market accumulated approximately -$125.2B in negative daily net, whereas from October 2025 through end of March 2026, the figure stands at -$64.2B. In other words, current pressure remains roughly half as large by total realized loss volume, even though individual negative days are already of comparable intensity.
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders SOPR Indicator
STH SOPR measures the average ratio of sale price to acquisition price for coins held less than 155 days: values below 1.0 indicate selling below cost basis.
Short-term holders continue to exit the market at a loss. Historically, a prolonged period of STH SOPR below 1.0 reflects a stress phase for short-term participants. Such a regime typically ends either with stabilization and gradual recovery, or with a new leg down if price pressure persists. The key signal of improvement therefore remains the same - a confident return of the 7DMA above 1.0 and a sustained hold above that level.
Both indicators confirm the same picture: short-term market participants are selling at a loss, and pressure has intensified over the past week. Net Realized P/L captures the scale of losses in dollar terms, while STH SOPR reflects the systemic nature of these sales at the cohort behavior level. Together they point to a phase of pronounced short-term capital stress - but without the panic extremes characteristic of the final stages of a bear market.
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FAQ
Does STH SOPR below 1.0 mean an inevitable further price decline? No. This signal simply shows that a significant portion of short-term holders are currently selling below their cost basis. Historically, such periods can accompany both the formation of a local bottom and continued pressure, so the 0.989-0.990 level in isolation is not a sell signal.
Under what condition would the regime shift to neutral or more stable? This would require STH SOPR 7DMA to return above 1.0 with a sustained hold, alongside a simultaneous exit of Net Realized P/L 7DMA from negative territory. That would indicate the market has stopped systemically realizing losses at the short-term cohort level. Without price stabilization above the STH cost basis zone, such a scenario remains unlikely.
CONCLUSIONS
Net Realized P/L 7DMA has deepened to -$410M with a $154M deterioration over the week, while STH SOPR has slipped to 0.9899 - both indicators synchronously pointing to intensifying pressure from short-term holders. BTC remains nearly 30% below January highs, so the market continues to digest a phase of loss-driven unloading. The primary trigger for reassessing this view is a simultaneous return of Net Realized P/L 7DMA above zero and STH SOPR above 1.0. Until then, the base case remains consolidation with sustained downside pressure and the risk of a new wave of loss realizations on any price weakness.
Further Reading