🎧 Morning Brief #121- audio debate on today’s market setup
Short-term holders are entering the new week in a mode of sustained loss realization. As of March 9, the intraday average STH SOPR stands at 0.987, with only 6 out of 35 blocks closing above the neutral level of 1.0. Both charts describe the same picture from different angles: the first shows the nature of selling, the second - changes in the volume of coins within the cohort.
TL;DR
STH SOPR has remained below 1.0 for seven out of eight days - short-term holders are systematically selling below their cost basis, while the volume of their coins continues to shrink. The cohort's cost basis at ~$89K against a market price of ~$67K creates a large zone of potential supply capable of limiting the strength of any recovery.
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders SOPR Indicator
STH SOPR measures the ratio of the selling price to the purchase price of coins moved within the last 155 days. A value below 1.0 means the cohort is selling at a loss.
Between March 2 and March 9, STH SOPR crossed above 1.0 only once - on March 4, when the price briefly reached $70,800. On all other days the metric remained in loss-selling territory: the weekly low was recorded on March 6 at 0.979, and the value for March 8 came in at 0.991. As of March 9, the intraday average is 0.987, with only 17% of blocks closing above 1.0 - 6 out of 35. The 7-day moving average holds near 0.992, confirming the sustained nature of the pressure.
The single day with SOPR above 1.0 proved to be an isolated event: the market quickly returned to loss-selling mode, and intraday data for March 9 confirms this. The first sign of a regime change will be a sustained close of STH SOPR above 1.0 for several consecutive days alongside rising price.
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Supply
STH Supply is the total volume of BTC held by holders with coins aged up to 155 days. Realized Price reflects the volume-weighted average acquisition price of this cohort.
Over the past two weeks, STH Supply declined from approximately 6.06M to 5.92M BTC - around 140,000 BTC left the cohort. Realized Price remains at ~$89,028 against a market price of ~$67,175. The gap is approximately 24%, pointing to a substantial unrealized loss for the average short-term holder.
The decline in supply within the STH cohort may reflect either capitulation with loss realization or natural "maturation" of coins into long-term holding. In the first case, pressure materializes through selling; in the second - through a gradual reduction in the share of price-sensitive supply in the market. The gap between the cohort's realized price and the current market price creates a structural supply overhang. As price recovers, some short-term holders will likely use rallies to exit without a loss.
The two charts together form a coherent picture: SOPR shows that the active portion of short-term holders is selling at a loss, while Supply captures the shrinking volume of coins within that same cohort. Together, this points to continued cohort cleansing through pressure rather than through a recovery in profitability.
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FAQ
What does STH SOPR below 1.0 for seven out of eight days mean? It means that the majority of short-term holders moving coins are doing so at a loss. Consistency matters more than a single episode: seven out of eight days points to structural rather than situational pressure.
Under what conditions will the signal turn positive? The first positive sign will be a sustained close of STH SOPR above 1.0 for several consecutive days alongside rising price. An additional confirmation will be a slowdown in the decline of STH Supply, indicating a weakening of forced selling within the cohort. Until these conditions are met, the active portion of the STH cohort remains a source of market pressure.
CONCLUSIONS
Data for March 2-9 points to sustained structural pressure from short-term holders: STH SOPR has remained below 1.0 for seven out of eight days, and intraday data for March 9 confirms the new week is starting without signs of recovery. At the same time, the volume of coins within the STH cohort continues to shrink, while the cohort's realized price remains near $89K against a market price of around $67K. This gap creates a meaningful zone of potential supply capable of capping the strength of any rally. The regime remains risk-off. The first sign of improvement will be a sustained return of STH SOPR above 1.0 for several consecutive days alongside rising price. If the market moves back toward $65K or below, the risk of a new wave of capitulation within the cohort increases significantly.
Further Reading
If you want to go deeper on the metrics covered in today's brief:
- Bitcoin STH SOPR: What It Is and How to Use It - the core metric of today's issue
- Bitcoin LTH vs STH: Supply Dynamics, Cost Basis & Market Structure - why the gap between cost basis and market price matters
- Bitcoin Realized Price Bands Explained - how realized price forms key support and resistance levels
- Bitcoin Supply in Profit: Definition, Thresholds & Market Signals - broader context for supply profitability
- Realized Profit vs Unrealized Profit: What's the Difference - the foundational concept behind SOPR and cost basis