Bitcoin insights, price analysis, and market signals from Adler AM. Weekly context, on-chain data, and actionable BTC research for investors and traders.
Short-term holders are realizing profits for the first time in a week - seller pressure is easing. However, MVRV remains deeply below the norm, and the durability of the reversal has yet to be confirmed.
Master the mechanics of market deleveraging. Understand the relationship between High ELR, Open Interest, and the liquidity feedback loops that drive cascades.
Realized Price ($54.9K) is under threat as Bitcoin slides. LTH Cost Basis rises while Realized Price falls, compressing support into a $43K-$51K corridor.
SSR Oscillator is negative again after January's attempted recovery. USDT liquidity outflows confirm: the rebound has failed.
Realized losses on the Bitcoin network have reached Luna 2022 crash levels, however the price context is fundamentally different - the current sell-off is occurring at $67K, not $19K, which changes the interpretation of the signal.
Bitcoin miner capitulation signals: difficulty -14%, Puell Multiple 30DMA <0.8, Cango sold 4,451 BTC. Hashrate drops, exchange flows stay stable.
The bear market ongoing since November 2025 has entered a deep phase after Friday's crash with a -46% drawdown. Price has approached the 1.25x Realized Price Band, which historically served as the boundary between correction and capitulation.
On-chain and derivatives are signaling capitulation in sync: STH are realizing extreme losses, while long liquidation dominance has reached the 2026 high. Historically, such extremes have formed local bottoms.
Short-term holders are realizing losses and sitting on average 25% below their cost basis.
ash Ribbons use 30/60-day hashrate MAs to detect miner capitulation. Learn the buy signal rule, historical accuracy (64%), and how to confirm with Puell Multiple.
Exchange reserves reversed from lows and increased by 34K BTC over two weeks. Supply growth amid weak price action is a negative signal for short-term dynamics.
Unrealised losses tripled since January, SOPR Ratio dropped 40% from peaks - market in mid-cycle stress phase, but no signs of mass capitulation.
