New Record Derivatives Pressure, but Price Holds
New 30-day pressure low, but price held. Buyers absorbing supply at key support.
4 min read
Axel Adler Jr.
Institutional Bitcoin research for serious investors • On-chain • Futures • ETFs • Macro • 10 min/week • Zero guesswork.
Page 14 of 22
Net Realized P/L at Zero: June 2022 Pattern Repeats
Bitcoin is entering a zone that preceded the main capitulation phase in 2022. Net Realized P/L has dropped 97% from peaks and reached near-zero levels - exactly as it did before the decline from $30K to $16K.
4 min read
MVRV Z-Score: How to Identify Bitcoin Market Tops and Bottoms
Learn how MVRV Z-Score works, key thresholds, common mistakes, ETF impact, and a practical multi-indicator framework with real historical examples.
9 min read
83 Days Without Bull Mode: Trend Pulse Confirms Structural Weakness
Trend Pulse shifted from Neutral to Bear - both signals (14D return and SMA30 vs SMA200) are negative. Quarterly return of -19% confirms macro weakness without signs of extreme capitulation.
4 min read
+17K BTC to Exchanges in 2 Days: The $90K Breakdown Was Premeditated
The $90K zone breakdown was accompanied by anomalous exchange inflows - sellers prepared in advance. Now SOPR=1.0 acts as resistance, not support.
4 min read
$90K - STH Defense Line: Hold or Capitulation
Price is testing the $89.8-90K zone - the cost basis of the freshest buyers. Holding this level is critical for stabilization; a breakdown means two cohorts go underwater simultaneously.
3 min read
Sellers Attack on Two Fronts: Derivatives and Spot
Sellers have regained control on derivatives after several weeks of buyer dominance, while US spot is not providing counter-demand - both signals point to a risk-off regime.
4 min read
Bitcoin LTH vs STH: Supply Dynamics, Cost Basis & Market Structure
Learn how Long-Term and Short-Term Holders shape Bitcoin price. Master the Liquidity Pressure Model to identify market tops, bottoms & structural risk.
9 min read
Deleveraging: Sentiment Crashed from 80% to 45% After $205M Long Liquidations
Overheated sentiment in the 80% zone ended with a $205M long liquidation cascade and a regime change.
3 min read
STH Discount Compresses to -4%: Price Tests Cost Basis While Profit-Taking Surges to 35K BTC
STH discount has narrowed to minimum - price has nearly caught up with cost basis. This is a decision zone: either a return to premium or a new wave of pressure.
4 min read
STH Down 3%: $100K Level to Become a Wall of Resistance
BTC price is below the average purchase price of short-term investors, putting them at a loss. Both charts show the same picture: when price approaches the STH breakeven point, the market will face a wave of sellers looking to exit at zero.
4 min read
Futures Bulls Are Back: Positioning Index Above 3 for the First Time Since October
Smoothed positioning has moved into a sustained bullish zone for the first time in three months. Sentiment confirms the local regime shift.
4 min read