Institutional Bitcoin research for serious investors • On-chain • Futures • ETFs • Macro • 10 min/week • Zero guesswork.
This brief compares the current loss regime to November's capitulation. Core thesis: the market has already passed through peak stress, seller pressure is structurally exhausted, and conditions for a local recovery are forming.
This brief confirms the continuation of a negative capital flow regime: the weekly average in negative territory indicates that loss-making sales outweigh profitable ones. Until the 7dMA reaches zero, the market remains in a risk zone.
Bitcoin lost about one-fifth of its value over the past 3 months and shows negative annual performance. Price structure relative to moving averages and monthly RSI help determine whether this remains a correction within the cycle or signals a deeper reversal.
STH SOPR definition: measures if Short-Term Holders sell Bitcoin at profit or loss. Formula, real examples of capitulation signals, and how to spot market bottoms.
Short-term holder Net Pressure has dropped into the bottom 5% of its distribution. Price is trading below STH Realized Price, leading to equalization of buying and selling pressure.
Sentiment and on-chain structure are synchronously pointing to market weakness. Short-term holders are underwater, and all key nearby support levels have turned into resistance.
Bitcoin derivatives structure explained: funding rates, open interest, and liquidation levels. How to read futures data to identify bullish or bearish setups.
The financial health index is at a critical threshold, demand-supply balance is weak, and nominal revenues have reached local lows.
Short-term holders have entered a stress regime, price has fallen below their average purchase price, and STH-SOPR (30D) has dropped to 0.98, indicating loss-taking and increased risk of accelerated selling.
Bitcoin registers a transition of market structure into risk-off mode: both indicators have shifted into bearish territory, requiring heightened caution until signs of reversal emerge.
Derivatives positioning remains negative while market sentiment has fallen to levels seen during major capitulations. Together, these signals point to an elevated-risk environment where persistent short-term selling pressure coincides with extreme investor fear.
The Bitcoin market is in a correction phase with a 30% drawdown from the all-time high. Two on-chain indicators: STH SOPR and P/L Block point to loss realization by participants and deteriorating market sentiment.
