Long-term holders have gone from near-zero profit to being 37% above their average purchase price.
TL;DR
Bitcoin is hitting a new high in the current bull cycle, and long-term holders are back in solid profit after weeks near breakeven.
Bitcoin Bull Market Correction Drawdowns
On September 22, price reached $87,200 - a new high for this bull cycle, with the drawdown from that high now at zero. Over less than three months from the cycle low, price is up 46%.
The deepest drawdown within the cycle was just 6%, on September 16. Worth watching is whether corrections stay as shallow as they did in 2015-2018, or start widening the way they did in 2018-2022.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder adjusted MVRV (6M-10Y Cohort)
As of September 23, bitcoin is trading at $86,406, while the average purchase price for long-term holders (six months and older) sits at $62,706. The group is now 37% above its cost basis. A week earlier, on September 15, the profit buffer stood at 20% - the cost basis barely moved, so the gain came entirely from bitcoin's price.
In early August this cohort briefly came close to a loss, with the cost basis nearly converging with the purchase price, before the rally began.
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FAQ
If long-term holders' MVRV is above 1, does that mean the whole group is in profit? No. This is the group's average cost basis. Some holders bought above the current price and remain underwater, even when the average shows a profit.
The new cycle's drawdown is only about 6% - does that mean deeper corrections are off the table? No. This is just the smallest drawdown seen in the first months of the move. Deeper corrections have occurred at similar stages of past cycles and remain possible.
Conclusions
Bitcoin is at a new cycle high, and long-term holders are holding a profit buffer of 37% - a month ago it was close to nothing. Continued price gains will widen that buffer and push the group further from breakeven.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
MVRV Ratio - Market value vs realized value to identify valuation regimes and cycle risk.
Realized Price - Aggregate on-chain cost basis compared with BTC price and long-term trend.
LTH-SOPR - Long-term holder profit/loss realization around the 1.0 breakeven threshold.
Supply in Profit - Share of circulating supply in profit as a cycle-phase and euphoria gauge.