Short-term holders remain underwater relative to their entry price, but realized losses are minimal. Two views - position status (MVRV) and behavior (SOPR) - point to pressure without signs of capitulation.
TL;DR
This brief examines the position of short-term holders: they are underwater, but their realized losses remain shallow. The logic is simple - position status (MVRV) and behavior (SOPR) tell the same story: there is pressure, but no capitulation.
Bitcoin STH MVRV Pricing Bands
STH MVRV Pricing Bands shows the position status: STH coins are trading below their Realized Price and are in unrealized loss.
STH MVRV remains near 0.94 and has stayed below parity at 1.0 for 98 consecutive days - more than three months of continuous unrealized losses. The cohort's Realized Price currently stands at $67.3K, while spot trades at $63.2K, leaving a -6% gap: the average STH entry price is above the market. At the same time, the price remains above the -1σ band at $59.3K, while the deep-stress zone at -2σ, or $49.2K, remains far below.
The current situation can be described as a controlled loss: holders are underwater, but the band structure remains intact. The downside trigger is a loss of the -1σ band at $59.3K, followed by a move toward -2σ at $49.2K. The recovery trigger is a return of MVRV above 1.0, with spot moving back above the Realized Price at $67.3K.
Bitcoin STH SOPR
STH SOPR shows behavior: whether these holders are realizing losses right now.
STH SOPR (7D MA) stands near 0.996 - below 1.0, meaning the cohort is realizing losses on average, but the losses are small. On August 10, the metric touched parity at 1.0 and was rejected, after which it began drifting lower again. In recent weeks, it has remained confined to a narrow range around 0.996-1.002. This is not a deep flush, but sluggish loss realization close to the break-even line.
Behavior confirms the position status: MVRV shows that STH coins are underwater, while SOPR shows that holders are realizing those losses - but only slightly, without capitulation. The sentiment reversal trigger is SOPR holding above 1.0, when demand absorbs supply and the cohort returns to break-even. Deterioration would mean a sustained move below 1.0 with losses deepening. The key point today is that this is a controlled drawdown near support, and the outcome depends on whether SOPR can hold above 1.0 while the price defends the -1σ band.
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FAQ
Why are STH coins in loss without this being a panic signal? An MVRV of 0.94 represents a moderate loss, not an extreme. The price is holding the -1σ band, while SOPR loss realization is occurring close to the 1.0 line rather than in a flush. For now, this is pressure, not capitulation.
What would confirm a regime change? To the upside - SOPR returning above 1.0 and holding there, along with MVRV rising above 1.0 as spot moves back above the Realized Price at $67.3K. To the downside - a break below -1σ at $59.3K toward -2σ at $49.2K, accompanied by SOPR moving deeper below 1.0.
CONCLUSIONS
Both views point to the same conclusion: short-term holders are sitting on unrealized losses (MVRV 0.94, -6% relative to the Realized Price) and realizing losses on average (SOPR 0.996), but those losses remain shallow and close to break-even, without clear spikes or a breakdown of the bands. Pressure remains, while the structure above the -1σ support at $59.3K is still intact. The main reversal trigger is SOPR holding above 1.0 while -1σ holds. The main risk is a loss of $59.3K followed by a move toward the -2σ deep-stress zone at $49.2K as SOPR falls further.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
STH-SOPR - Short-term holder profit/loss behavior around the 1.0 breakeven threshold.
MVRV Ratio - Market value vs realized value to identify valuation regimes and cycle risk.
Realized Price Bands - Dynamic realized-price valuation zones from live BTC price and on-chain cost basis.
Realized Price - Aggregate on-chain cost basis compared with BTC price and long-term trend.
Supply in Loss - Share of supply held at a loss to flag stress and capitulation zones.