What is Bitcoin STH Realized Price and why is it the most watched cost basis level on-chain?

Bitcoin STH (Short-Term Holder) Realized Price is the weighted average acquisition cost of every Bitcoin that has moved on-chain within the last 155 days — calculated as STH Realized Cap divided by STH Supply. The formula uses Bitcoin's UTXO model: each unspent output carries a timestamp and is valued at the price when it was last created. Only UTXOs aged 155 days or fewer are included in the STH calculation. The result is the aggregate breakeven level of the most price-sensitive market participants: recent retail buyers, momentum traders, and recent institutional accumulators. The 155-day threshold was empirically derived: coins held beyond this duration statistically behave like conviction holdings — they rarely return to the market during normal corrections. Below this threshold, holders exhibit significantly higher loss-tolerance sensitivity, making the cohort the primary source of capitulation selling during downturns. Why it is the most watched level: the crossover between BTC spot price and STH Realized Price functions as the most reliable binary macro regime signal in on-chain analysis. Sustained price above STH RP = bull market structure (average recent buyer profitable, self-reinforcing holding behavior). Sustained price below STH RP = bear market structure (average recent buyer underwater, capitulation pressure dominant, STH RP becomes resistance rather than support). As of March 8, 2026, with BTC at approximately $65,974 and the weighted STH Realized Price around $83,000–$103,000 (depending on whether Coinbase-move adjustments are applied), the STH cohort is in a depressed market structure — average unrealized losses of approximately 26.3% (Darkfost, CryptoQuant, March 1, 2026).

What do the UTXO age band realized prices reveal about Bitcoin market structure in March 2026?

Decomposing STH Realized Price by UTXO age band reveals the internal structure of which buyer cohorts are under stress and at what price levels overhead supply clusters — information invisible in the aggregate figure. The live CryptoQuant data as of March 8, 2026: 0d–1w cohort RP: approximately $68,000 — this group is near breakeven or slightly profitable at current prices around $65,974. 1w–1m cohort RP: approximately $67,000–$68,000 — confirmed by Darkfost (March 6, 2026) as the only STH cohort currently able to realize profits. 1m–3m cohort RP: approximately $86,894 — unrealized loss of roughly 24%. This cohort represents the Q4 2025 accumulation wave buyers who entered near cycle highs. 3m–6m cohort RP: approximately $99,533 — unrealized loss of roughly 34%. These are holders who accumulated near the ATH range ($100K–$126K) in mid-to-late 2025. Historical reference for October 2025 ATH context: at the $126,000 peak, the 1w–1m cohort RP was $113,500 and the 1m–3m cohort RP was $115,500, producing a weighted STH cost basis of $112,200 (Yonsei_dent, CryptoQuant, October 2025). The structural interpretation: when both the 1m–3m AND 3m–6m cohorts simultaneously sit significantly below spot price, bear market behavior dominates. Every bounce attempt toward $86,894 (1m–3m RP) or $99,533 (3m–6m RP) represents a supply wall of break-even sellers — the exact behavior observed on March 6, 2026, when Darkfost documented STH sending 27,000 BTC to exchanges in a single day during a price recovery. This age band framework provides precise, data-anchored resistance levels rather than technical chart levels.

How does the STH Realized Price crossover signal work and what is its historical accuracy?

The STH Realized Price crossover is the single most reliable macro regime classifier in on-chain analysis, with confirmed accuracy across all four major Bitcoin cycles since 2013. The bullish crossover: spot price reclaims STH Realized Price from below. This historically marks the transition from bear market to new bull leg. Speed of reclaim matters as much as the reclaim itself — the May 2020 reclaim (from $3,800 COVID crash back above $7,000) was completed in approximately 60 days, and the subsequent bull run reached $29,300 by December 2020. The bearish crossover: spot price breaks below STH Realized Price on a sustained daily close basis. This historically marks entry into distribution and bear phase. Example: the sustained February 2018 break below STH RP gave the structural bear signal months before mainstream analyst capitulation, with Bitcoin subsequently falling from $9,000 to $3,200 over the following 10 months. The key distinction between a false break and a genuine regime change: false breaks are characterized by rapid recovery within 1–3 daily candles (intraday wicks below STH RP that close above it). Genuine bear crossovers are characterized by multiple consecutive daily closes below STH RP, with each subsequent bounce failing at lower levels. The 2022 bear market example: the break below STH RP at the $29,000–$25,000 range in June 2022 was confirmed by STH SOPR remaining persistently below 1.0 and the level acting as resistance through each bounce. When the STH price/RP golden cross occurs (spot reclaims from below), historically Bitcoin enters an upward trend — as identified by CW8900 (CryptoQuant, January 2026), who noted that a break above $92,200 would return STHs to aggregate profit. That level was not sustained in early 2026. The current signal (March 2026): STH SOPR 90DMA at approximately 0.985 and below 1.0 continuously since early 2026, with the 7DMA confirming — no divergence between short and medium-term trend. Analyst IT Tech (CryptoQuant, February 23, 2026) described this as 'structural, not a flush — slow bleed' until 90DMA recovers and holds above 1.0.

What is STH-MVRV and how does it differ from STH Realized Price as a signal?

STH-MVRV and STH Realized Price contain identical underlying data expressed in different forms. STH-MVRV = Spot Price / STH Realized Price. When STH-MVRV equals 1.0, spot price equals STH Realized Price — the cohort is at aggregate breakeven. When STH-MVRV is above 1.0, the cohort is in average unrealized profit. When below 1.0, in average unrealized loss. The practical difference in application: use STH Realized Price when you need an absolute dollar level for direct chart overlay — to identify specific support/resistance zones (e.g., $86,894 for the 1m–3m band). Use STH-MVRV when you need a normalized ratio signal for cross-cycle comparison — the ratio strips out the effect of different price scales across cycles, making a reading of 0.85 in 2026 directly comparable to 0.85 in 2018. The current STH-MVRV Z-Score (the normalized version): reached −2.26 on February 22, 2026 (Amr Taha, CryptoQuant) — more extreme than the −1.77 reading on April 7, 2025, which coincided with BTC forming a local bottom above $78,000. The Z-Score context: extreme negative STH-MVRV Z-Score readings historically appear near the end of corrective phases, suggesting capitulation exhaustion rather than new downside pressure. Combined entry filter: STH-MVRV below 1.0 AND STH-SOPR below 1.0 = both normalizing loss and flow signal confirming. Combined exit filter: STH-MVRV above 1.3 AND STH-SOPR above 1.03 = both confirming profit-taking environment. This dual-confirmation approach eliminates single-metric false signals.

Why is STH Realized Price always higher than the aggregate Realized Price and what does the spread between them signal?

The aggregate Realized Price values all circulating Bitcoin, including coins that have not moved in years or decades — early miners, lost wallets, Satoshi-era coins with near-zero cost bases. As of March 8, 2026, the aggregate Realized Price (all holders) is $54,470. The STH Realized Price is always higher than this aggregate in a post-cycle-top market environment because it only includes coins that moved in the last 155 days — activity that occurred at the elevated prices of the recent cycle. The spread between them is analytically significant. A wide spread ($65,974 spot vs $54,470 aggregate RP vs ~$83,000–$103,000 STH RP in March 2026) tells a specific structural story: long-term holders have a massive unrealized gain cushion at $54,470 average cost, making them highly unlikely to capitulate at current prices. Short-term holders at $83,000–$103,000 average cost are under significant stress at $65,974 spot. The two-layer support structure: aggregate Realized Price ($54,470) acts as the ultimate macro support — price is still 21% above the network-wide cost basis, meaning no aggregate on-chain capitulation has occurred. STH Realized Price acts as the intermediate structural floor — the level that must be reclaimed for bull market structure to resume. In the 2022 bear market, BTC fell below the aggregate Realized Price (trading at $15,500 vs aggregate RP near $18,000–$20,000), confirming a full-network capitulation event. The March 2026 data shows this threshold has not been approached — aggregate MVRV at 1.21 confirms the market is still 21% above collective cost basis, with only the recent-buyer cohort underwater.

How does STH Market Cap contraction signal capitulation and what did it show in early 2026?

STH Market Cap represents the current market value of all Bitcoin held by short-term holders, calculated as (STH Supply × current spot price). It measures the aggregate economic weight of recent buyer positions — a proxy for how much capital is currently at risk in the most price-sensitive cohort. A steep decline in STH Market Cap indicates either that price has fallen sharply (reducing the USD value of existing STH positions) or that STH supply itself has contracted (holders either capitulating into LTH status by crossing the 155-day threshold, or selling and exiting the market). The February 2026 signal (Amr Taha, CryptoQuant, February 26, 2026): STH Market Cap dropped to approximately $386 billion by February 24, 2026 — falling below the previous cycle low of $440 billion recorded on April 8, 2025. Historical context: the April 2025 STH Market Cap trough coincided with BTC forming a local bottom, followed by a recovery from approximately $78,000 to over $108,000. The $386 billion reading in February 2026 was more extreme, suggesting a deeper capitulation event. The broader capitulation pattern: aggressive STH Market Cap contractions have historically preceded major capitulation events, after which the market structure shifts. The exhaustion mechanism: as STH positions shrink in value, the cohort with the highest reactivity to price moves becomes smaller — less capital can be forced out, reducing potential additional selling pressure. This is the on-chain equivalent of 'weak hands have been flushed' — quantified as the specific USD value of capital that has exited or been repriced downward.

What causes false STH realized price signals and how do you filter them?

False STH signals — where on-chain data appears to show mass STH activity but no genuine economic event has occurred — are one of the most important analytical pitfalls in using STH Realized Price and related metrics. The two primary sources of false signals documented in Cycle 4 are UTXO consolidation events and exchange internal transfers. UTXO consolidation: January 23, 2026 case study (Darkfost, CryptoQuant, January 28, 2026): Block 933503 contained UTXO consolidation transactions moving approximately 217,000 BTC. Approximately 188,000 BTC came from the 3m–6m age band (acquired at $102,000–$126,000), 30,900 BTC from 1m–3m, and 31,700 BTC from 1w–1m. These coins were sent from an address back to the same address to aggregate UTXOs — no economic sale occurred. Effect: this movement temporarily distorted STH MVRV, STH SOPR, and the aggregate STH cost basis (producing a spike in apparent realized losses that was entirely artificial). Exchange internal transfers: November 22–23, 2025 — Coinbase internal movement (likely institutional rebalancing or custody transfer) created a similar false realized-loss spike. The diagnostic checklist for filtering false signals: check if the spike comes from a single block or a very small number of transactions (genuine market-wide capitulation distributes across thousands of transactions). Cross-reference with exchange deposit data — real selling pressure shows as exchange inflow spikes across multiple platforms simultaneously. Verify with funding rates and liquidation data — genuine capitulation correlates with derivative liquidation events. The practical rule: any single UTXO or block responsible for more than 10% of a daily STH metric reading warrants independent verification before acting on the signal.

How should STH Realized Price be used as the conceptual basis for a DCA strategy?

STH Realized Price provides one of the most principled quantitative foundations for DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) signal design because it directly measures the aggregate breakeven of the most reactive market participants — the cohort whose behavior drives capitulation bottoms and bull market tops. The core DCA logic: buy more aggressively when spot price is at or below STH Realized Price (mean reversion expectation based on historical pattern of reclaims), and reduce contribution rate when spot is significantly above STH Realized Price (elevated risk, cohort in large profit, distribution incentive elevated). The distance-based sizing framework: within 0–5% of STH Realized Price — standard DCA increment. Below STH RP by 5–15% — increase allocation by 1.5–2× standard. Below STH RP by more than 15% — maximum allocation zone, STH loss threshold associated historically with correction low formation. When STH unrealized losses exceed 25% (as confirmed at 26.3% by Darkfost on March 1, 2026), the signal crosses into advanced bear market territory — historically among the strongest long-term accumulation windows. The limitation that must be acknowledged: in a genuine extended bear market, price can remain below STH RP for 6–18 months (2014–2015: 8 months, 2022: approximately 6 months). The DCA approach is explicitly designed to handle this scenario — regular, sized contributions regardless of timing, with increased sizing at lower levels, removes the need to call an exact bottom. The Smart DCA signal framework (referenced in the article) uses moving average-based proxies for STH RP in real-time execution, providing a systemized version of this logic with daily signal generation rather than manual threshold monitoring.

Bitcoin STH Realized Price: Formula & Bull/Bear Signal

Short-Term Holder Realized Price is the single most-watched cost basis level on-chain - the price at which recent Bitcoin buyers collectively break even. When BTC trades above it, the cycle has oxygen. When it breaks below, the mechanical pressure of underwater sellers takes over.

This guide covers the formula, UTXO age-band decomposition, interpretation zones, four cycle examples, and a practical trading playbook - with live data as of March 2026.

TL;DR

What it measures: The weighted average acquisition price of all coins held for fewer than 155 days
Key threshold: Price above STH Realized Price = bull structure; price below = bear structure
Best use case: Dynamic support/resistance identification, DCA entry timing, macro regime classification
Main limitation: 155-day cutoff is arbitrary; exchange coins and lost keys introduce noise
Combine with: STH-MVRV, STH-SOPR, UTXO Age Band distribution

What Is STH Realized Price?
Formula
Data Sources
How STH Realized Price Is Calculated
How to Interpret STH Realized Price Values
Historical Cycle Examples
Practical Application
STH Realized Price vs Related Metrics
How STH Realized Price Relates to Other Indicators
Limitations
FAQ
Conclusion

What Is STH Realized Price?

Realized Price is Bitcoin's "true" average cost basis - not the current market price, but the price at which each coin last moved on-chain. Aggregate all UTXOs (Unspent Transaction Outputs), value each at the price when it last transacted, and divide by circulating supply. That is the network-wide breakeven level.

STH Realized Price narrows this calculation to a specific cohort: coins that moved within the last 155 days. This captures retail traders, momentum buyers, and recent institutional accumulation - market participants who are statistically most likely to react to unrealized loss. Long-term holders (155+ days) tend to hold through volatility; short-term holders tend to capitulate.

The 155-day threshold is not arbitrary. Research by Glassnode and CryptoQuant across multiple cycles has shown that coins held longer than this rarely return to the market during normal corrections - they behave more like conviction holdings than speculative positions.

In one line: STH Realized Price is the weighted average price paid for every bitcoin that has moved in the last 155 days, making it the market's most sensitive cost-basis barometer.

Formula

Aggregate Realized Price (market-wide)

Realized Price = Realized Cap / Circulating Supply

Where:
  Realized Cap  = Σ (UTXO_i × Price_at_last_move_i)  for all UTXOs
  Circulating Supply = total BTC in circulation

STH Realized Price (cohort-specific)

STH Realized Price = STH Realized Cap / STH Supply

Where:
  STH Realized Cap = Σ (UTXO_i × Price_at_last_move_i)  for UTXOs aged 0–155 days
  STH Supply       = total BTC in those UTXOs

Weighted STH Cost Basis (UTXO Age Band approach)

The most granular version weights each age band by its share of Realized Cap:

Weighted STH CB = Σ (RP_band_k × RealizedCap_share_k)

Where:
  RP_band_k          = Realized Price of age band k
  RealizedCap_share_k = band k's share of total Realized Cap

Variable definitions:

UTXO_i - individual unspent output, valued at time of last on-chain move
Price_at_last_move_i - spot price when that UTXO was created/transferred
STH Supply - coins that last moved 0–155 days ago
RealizedCap_share_k - the economic weight of that age cohort in the network

Data Sources

How STH Realized Price Is Calculated

Step 1: Index Every UTXO by Age

The Bitcoin blockchain is scanned to identify every unspent output. Each UTXO carries a timestamp - the block when it was last transacted. UTXOs with age ≤ 155 days are flagged as "short-term holder" supply.

Step 2: Value Each UTXO at Its Creation Price

Each STH UTXO is multiplied by the BTC/USD spot price at the time it was created. This produces the "realized value" of that output - what its owner actually paid (or received) for those coins.

Step 3: Aggregate to STH Realized Cap

All individual realized values are summed:

STH Realized Cap = Σ (UTXO_i_btc × price_when_created_i)

Step 4: Divide by STH Supply

STH Realized Price = STH Realized Cap / STH Supply

This gives the average cost basis across all recent buyers.

Step 5 (Advanced): Decompose by UTXO Age Bands

For a more precise view, break the 0–155 day window into sub-bands and weight by Realized Cap share:

Bands: 0d–1d | 1d–1w | 1w–1m | 1m–3m | 3m–6m

Worked Example (as of March 8, 2026 - live CryptoQuant data):

Note: The 1m–3m cohort's high realized price (~$86.9k) reflects the Q4 2025 accumulation wave. The aggregate CryptoQuant Realized Price (all holders) is currently $54,470 (March 8, 2026), reflecting the much lower cost basis of long-term and dormant coin holders.

Process visualization:

  Blockchain UTXOs
       │
       ▼
  [Age Filter: ≤ 155d]
       │
       ├─ 0d–1w:   RP ~ $68k
       ├─ 1w–1m:   RP ~ $67k
       ├─ 1m–3m:   RP ~ $87k   ◄── largest recent cohort
       ├─ 3m–6m:   RP ~ $100k
       └─ 6m–155d: (transitions to LTH threshold)
              │
              ▼
       STH Realized Cap / STH Supply
              │
              ▼
       STH Realized Price  ← dynamic support/resistance level

How to Interpret STH Realized Price Values

Zone Table

Price Above STH Realized Price

When BTC trades above STH Realized Price, the average recent buyer is in profit. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle: holders are less likely to sell, supply contracts, and upward pressure builds on price. Historically every sustained Bitcoin bull market has maintained price above STH RP for extended periods - weeks to months - without a decisive break below.

The main risk at this level is complacency: STH RP becomes widely watched, and large players may use it as a target for stop hunts. Brief wicks below STH RP that recover quickly are common and do not invalidate the bull structure.

Common mistake: Treating a single candle close below STH RP as a cycle-top signal. The key is sustained daily closes, not intraday moves.

Price Below STH Realized Price

When spot price falls below STH Realized Price, the average recent buyer is underwater. This mechanical pressure matters because short-term holders have empirically lower loss tolerance than long-term holders. The result: capitulation selling, rising STH-SOPR below 1.0, and increased exchange inflows from this cohort.

The critical question is whether the break is temporary (demand absorbs selling) or persistent (bear market begins). Historically, bear markets are characterized by STH RP acting as resistance rather than support - every bounce gets sold back into the cost basis level.

Current signal (March 8, 2026): BTC at ~$65,974. STH SOPR = 0.991 (selling at slight loss). The 1m–3m cohort has a cost basis near $86.9k and the 3m–6m cohort near $99.5k - both significantly above current price, confirming STH stress. This is consistent with the bear structure noted by CryptoQuant analysts: "STH losses suggest a depressed market structure… unrealized losses of around 26.3%."

The STH Realized Price Crossover (Key Signal)

The most powerful application is the price/STH-RP crossover:

Bullish cross: Price reclaims STH RP from below → historically marks the end of bear markets and start of new bull legs
Bearish cross: Price breaks below STH RP → historically marks entry into distribution/bear phase

Historical Cycle Examples

Example 1: 2017–2018 Top and Crash

Situation: BTC reached $19,800 in December 2017 - the cycle top.

Metric behavior: During the 2018 bear market, BTC broke decisively below STH Realized Price in early 2018 and STH RP acted as resistance for the remainder of the year. STH RP continued to decline as the cohort rolled over at lower and lower entry prices.

Price behavior: From $19,800, BTC fell to $3,200 by December 2018 (-84%). The sustained break below STH RP in February 2018 gave the structural bear signal months before most analysts capitulated.

Conclusion:

Sustained close below STH RP in a topping market = bear market confirmation
STH RP as resistance throughout 2018 - no failed reclaim until November 2020

Example 2: 2020 COVID Crash and Recovery

Situation: March 2020 saw BTC crash from $9,200 to $3,800 in 48 hours.

Metric behavior: STH RP briefly acted as overhead resistance post-crash but was reclaimed rapidly by May 2020. The speed of the reclaim was anomalous - institutional demand (MicroStrategy, Square) absorbed the selling immediately.

Price behavior: BTC went from $3,800 to $29,300 by December 2020. The May 2020 reclaim of STH RP above ~$7,000 was the on-chain confirmation of the new bull cycle.

Conclusion:

Rapid reclaim of STH RP after capitulation = strong bull re-entry signal
2020 showed that reclaim speed matters as much as the reclaim itself

Example 3: 2021 Double-Top and 2022 Bear Market

Situation: BTC peaked at $69,000 in November 2021.

Metric behavior: STH RP in January 2022 was near $47,000. The break below this level coincided with the Luna/Terra collapse in May 2022, confirmed the bear trend. By November 2022 (FTX collapse), STH RP was near $25,000 with BTC trading at $16,000 - STH cohort was in ~35% average loss.

Price behavior: BTC fell from $69k to $15,500 (-78%). The June 2022 break below $20k put the majority of STH cohort into deep loss, triggering the cascading capitulation event.

Conclusion:

June 2022 STH RP breach at $29k–$25k range = textbook bear market structural signal
Extreme STH losses (>25%) have historically coincided with cycle bottom formations

Example 4: 2024–2025 Bull Cycle and 2026 Correction

Situation: BTC reached ATH ~$124k in late 2025 (CryptoQuant data confirms 12m–18m cohort cost basis at ~$88k, 6m–12m at ~$106k). In early 2026, BTC corrected sharply.

Metric behavior (live data): As of March 8, 2026:

BTC price: ~$65,974
Aggregate Realized Price: $54,470 (all holders still in profit)
1m–3m cohort cost basis: ~$86,894 (these holders are ~23% underwater)
3m–6m cohort cost basis: ~$99,533 (these holders are ~34% underwater)
STH-SOPR: 0.991 (selling at slight loss)

Price behavior: The -47% correction from ATH brought spot below both the 1m–3m and 3m–6m cohort cost bases, creating the "depressed market structure" pattern - STH holding historically high unrealized losses.

Conclusion:

STH cohort breakdown by age band reveals layered support/resistance levels
When both 1m–3m AND 3m–6m cohorts are underwater, bear market behavior dominates
Aggregate Realized Price ($54,470) remains the ultimate macro support - price is still 21% above it

Practical Application

Accumulation / DCA Conditions

Signal condition: Price within 0–15% of STH Realized Price, or below it

Confirmation conditions:

STH-SOPR < 1.0 for 7+ consecutive days (realized losses = capitulation underway)
STH-MVRV < 1.0 (cohort in aggregate loss)
Exchange inflows declining after a spike (selling pressure exhausted)

Traps:

Bear markets can persist well below STH RP for months - don't assume an instant bounce
A single STH RP test is not confirmation; wait for STH-SOPR to recover above 1.0

Risk guidance: STH RP below spot = the most historically reliable DCA zone. Position sizing should reflect distance from STH RP: closer to it → smaller incremental buys; significantly below it (>15%) → larger allocations. This is the logic underlying the Smart DCA signal framework.

Risk-Off / Exit Conditions

Signal condition: Price 20–35%+ above STH Realized Price sustained for multiple weeks

Confirmation conditions:

STH-MVRV > 1.3–1.4 (short-term holders sitting on significant unrealized gains)
STH-SOPR persistently above 1.02 (realized profit-taking accelerating)
UTXO age band: 1w–1m cohort growing rapidly (new speculative demand chasing price)

Traps:

In a true bull cycle, STH RP can trail spot for months. Exiting too early is the most common mistake
STH MVRV crossing 1.2 is not a sell - it is a "monitor closely" signal

Risk guidance: Trim position size, not wholesale exit. The productive use of this signal is reducing leverage and moving to spot-only, not full exits.

Neutral / Wait Conditions

Signal condition: Price within 5% of STH Realized Price, direction unclear

What to watch:

Is STH-SOPR recovering above 1.0? → Bullish lean
Are STH exchange inflows rising? → Bearish lean
Is the dominant band (by RC share) above or below spot? → Identifies the pressure vector

When to use STH RP vs STH-MVRV:

Use STH Realized Price when you need an absolute dollar level (support/resistance zone on a price chart). Use STH-MVRV when you want a normalized ratio signal (>1.2 = risk-off zone, <0.85 = accumulation zone). They are the same underlying data expressed differently - STH-MVRV = Spot Price / STH Realized Price.

Combined analysis recipe:

Entry filter: STH-MVRV < 1.0 AND STH-SOPR < 1.0 (both confirming loss)
Exit filter:  STH-MVRV > 1.3 AND STH-SOPR > 1.03 (both confirming profit-taking)

How STH Realized Price Relates to Other Indicators

Bridge formulas:

STH-MVRV = Spot Price / STH Realized Price
  → When STH-MVRV = 1.0, Spot = STH Realized Price (breakeven)

STH Unrealized P/L % = (Spot / STH RP - 1) × 100
  → Current (Mar 8, 2026): ($65,974 / ~$83,000 - 1) ≈ -20.5% for weighted STH

STH Realized Price ≈ Aggregate RP × (STH Supply / Total Supply) × adjustment factor
  → STH RP always > Aggregate RP in a post-peak market (recent buyers paid more)

NUPL (STH) ≈ (Market Cap - STH Realized Cap) / Market Cap
  → Negative NUPL for STH = bear signal

Indicator relationships:

STH-SOPR is the flow signal; STH Realized Price is the stock signal. SOPR tells you what's happening today; RP tells you the aggregate state of the cohort. Use both together.
MVRV Z-Score uses aggregate Realized Price (all holders). STH RP is more sensitive because it excludes dormant/lost coins.
Realized Price by age band (the UTXO distribution endpoint) is the decomposed form of STH RP - it shows the internal structure, not just the aggregate.

STH Realized Price Limitations

1. The 155-day threshold is a convention, not a law

No fundamental principle says a buyer who holds 154 days is behaviorally different from one holding 156 days. The threshold was empirically derived and is broadly accepted, but it means the STH/LTH split is a model, not ground truth.

Mitigation: Use UTXO age band breakdown (0d–1m, 1m–3m, 3m–6m) for more granular analysis. Don't rely solely on the 155-day aggregate.

2. Exchange wallet aggregation introduces noise

Coins on exchanges can be transferred internally without representing economic trades. These "internal moves" reset the age clock but don't represent a new market participant entering. This slightly inflates STH Supply and can distort the realized price during high exchange activity periods.

Mitigation: Cross-check with exchange-adjusted metrics where available (Glassnode provides entity-adjusted versions).

3. Lost coins and dormant wallets understate LTH cost basis

Very old coins (Satoshi-era, early miners) likely represent lost coins with a near-zero cost basis. Their inclusion in the aggregate realized price creates a permanently lower floor for the all-holder metric. STH RP is less affected by this since it only uses recent activity.

Mitigation: No clean fix. Treat aggregate Realized Price as a lower-bound estimate for the true market-wide cost basis.

4. STH RP lags in fast markets

In rapid price movements (±20% in a week), the STH cohort's composition changes faster than the metric updates. The realized price is always backward-looking by construction.

Mitigation: Combine with SOPR (which updates daily/block-by-block) for real-time sentiment. Use STH RP as the medium-term anchor, SOPR as the high-frequency signal.

FAQ

What is Bitcoin STH Realized Price?

Bitcoin STH (Short-Term Holder) Realized Price is the average acquisition cost of all Bitcoin that has moved on-chain within the last 155 days. It represents the collective breakeven level of recent market participants - traders, new retail buyers, and recent institutional accumulators. When BTC spot price is above this level, the recent-buyer cohort is in aggregate profit. When below, they are in aggregate loss.

Where can I find STH Realized Price data?

The most reliable sources are CryptoQuant, Glassnode (with their proprietary entity-adjusted version), Bitcoin Magazine Pro (visual overlay), and MacroMicro (free chart with STH/LTH comparison). For raw UTXO age band data,

Why is STH Realized Price different from the aggregate Realized Price?

Aggregate Realized Price values all circulating coins, including coins that haven't moved in 10+ years (early miners, lost wallets). As of March 8, 2026, it is ~$54,470. STH Realized Price only values coins that moved in the last 155 days - a much smaller, more active subset. Because recent activity occurred at higher prices, STH RP is always higher than the aggregate in a post-cycle-top environment. The spread between them is itself informative: a wide spread signals that long-term holders have a massive unrealized gain cushion.

What does it mean when price breaks below STH Realized Price?

It means the average recent buyer is now at a paper loss. Historically this has triggered two types of market behavior: (1) capitulation selling from those who cannot tolerate losses, amplifying downward pressure; and (2) eventual absorption by patient capital (LTHs, value buyers, institutions) who treat the level as attractive. In bear markets, STH RP acts as resistance after the break. In bull market corrections, the level is reclaimed quickly.

How reliable is STH Realized Price as a cycle indicator?

Across four major Bitcoin cycles (2013–2014, 2017–2018, 2020–2021, 2021–2022), the STH RP crossover has provided reliable macro-regime signals. Bull markets are defined by sustained price above STH RP; bear markets by sustained price below. The signal is less reliable for short-term timing - price can oscillate around STH RP for weeks during transition phases.

Can STH Realized Price be used for Bitcoin DCA timing?

Yes, and it is one of the most principled bases for DCA signal design. The core logic: buy more aggressively when spot is near or below STH RP (mean reversion expectation) and reduce contribution rate when spot is significantly above STH RP (elevated risk). This is the conceptual foundation of the Smart DCA signal framework, which uses MA-based proxies for STH RP in real-time execution.

What is the difference between STH SOPR and STH Realized Price?

STH-SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures the realized profit or loss on coins actually being sold on a given day. STH Realized Price measures the unrealized aggregate cost basis of the entire cohort. SOPR is a flow metric (what's happening now); RP is a stock metric (cumulative state). Current STH-SOPR of 0.991 (March 8, 2026) tells you that coins being moved today are being sold at a slight loss. STH RP tells you the average level at which those coins were purchased.

Why does the 1m–3m cohort have such a high cost basis right now?

The 1m–3m age band's realized price of ~$86,894 (March 8, 2026) reflects the fact that a significant volume of Bitcoin changed hands during the Q4 2025–early 2026 period when prices were elevated (near cycle highs). Those buyers are now sitting on unrealized losses of roughly 24% as BTC trades around $65,974. This cohort typically represents the "last wave" of buyers before a top - their stress level is a useful leading indicator for near-term selling pressure.

Conclusion

STH Realized Price is the most actionable cost-basis metric for cycle timing - it measures the aggregate breakeven of active market participants, not dormant whales or lost coins
As of March 8, 2026: Aggregate Realized Price = $54,470; BTC spot = $65,974; MVRV = 1.21 - the market remains above its network-wide cost basis, but the STH cohort (especially 1m–3m at ~$87k and 3m–6m at ~$100k) is under significant pressure
The bull/bear regime signal is binary: sustained price above STH RP = accumulate; sustained price below = defensive posture
UTXO age band decomposition reveals the internal structure - which cohorts have conviction vs. which are underwater and likely to sell
Combine STH RP with STH-SOPR for daily flow confirmation and STH-MVRV for normalized cycle positioning

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Combine With

STH-MVRV
Normalized version of STH RP - same data, ratio form. Use for overbought/oversold zones.
Guide: https://axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio-definition-formula-cycle-signals/

STH-SOPR
Flow confirmation - tells you if current sellers are realizing profit or loss right now.
Guide: https://axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-sth-sopr-what-it-is-and-how-to-use-it

UTXO Realized Price Age Distribution
Decompose STH RP by cohort to identify which buyer groups are under pressure.
Guide: https://axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-lth-vs-sth-supply-dynamics-cost-basis-market-structure

Bitcoin STH Realized Price Definition, Formula & Cost Basis Framework

TL;DR

Table of Contents

What Is STH Realized Price?

Formula

Aggregate Realized Price (market-wide)

STH Realized Price (cohort-specific)

Weighted STH Cost Basis (UTXO Age Band approach)

Data Sources

How STH Realized Price Is Calculated

Step 1: Index Every UTXO by Age

Step 2: Value Each UTXO at Its Creation Price

Step 3: Aggregate to STH Realized Cap

Step 4: Divide by STH Supply

Step 5 (Advanced): Decompose by UTXO Age Bands

How to Interpret STH Realized Price Values

Zone Table

Price Above STH Realized Price

Price Below STH Realized Price

The STH Realized Price Crossover (Key Signal)

Historical Cycle Examples

Example 1: 2017–2018 Top and Crash

Example 2: 2020 COVID Crash and Recovery

Example 3: 2021 Double-Top and 2022 Bear Market

Example 4: 2024–2025 Bull Cycle and 2026 Correction

Practical Application

Accumulation / DCA Conditions

Risk-Off / Exit Conditions

Neutral / Wait Conditions

STH Realized Price vs Related Metrics

How STH Realized Price Relates to Other Indicators

STH Realized Price Limitations

FAQ

What is Bitcoin STH Realized Price?

Where can I find STH Realized Price data?

Why is STH Realized Price different from the aggregate Realized Price?

What does it mean when price breaks below STH Realized Price?

How reliable is STH Realized Price as a cycle indicator?

Can STH Realized Price be used for Bitcoin DCA timing?

What is the difference between STH SOPR and STH Realized Price?

Why does the 1m–3m cohort have such a high cost basis right now?

Conclusion

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