Bitcoin insights, price analysis, and market signals from Adler AM. Weekly context, on-chain data, and actionable BTC research for investors and traders.
🎧 Morning Brief #230 - audio debate LTH SOPR remains below 1 at 0.92, even though the average cost basis of the entire long-term holder cohort is still well below
🎧 Morning Brief #229 - audio debate. The price has recovered to $64.6K, but two flow indicators do not confirm an influx of fresh demand. The Demand-to-Issuance Ratio and
Bitcoin price prediction for August 2026 with historical performance, support and resistance, macro outlook, ETF flows, and on-chain data.
Bitcoin's Profit/Loss Stress Score is back above 70 at 71.5, with most supply underwater. Weekly momentum is turning up - watch the 70 level.
Bitcoin's Unified Sentiment Index is at -13, still Neutral but sliding toward Fear. History shows +3.4% median 30-day returns; watch the -20 line.
STH realized-cap share fell to 23%, a multi-year low, while LTH share hit 52%. Supply is aging into strong hands, but demand has not yet returned
Bitcoin inflows near multi-year lows; Netflow neutral near zero. Exchange flows don't confirm selling - watch inflows and Netflow rise together.
MVRV Z-Score at multi-year lows but never went negative: Bitcoin is undervalued, not capitulated. Realized P/L turned positive as selling eases.
Coinbase Premium Index at -0.042 after 78 days below zero, while weekly US spot ETF flows return to +$439M. ETF cohort still 22% underwater.
Realized volatility sits in the bottom 10% since 2016 while OI/market cap falls for 21 days. Leverage is exiting; watch the 200DMA at 72,666.
Stablecoin net flow has stayed negative for 35 days while BTC exchange flows sit neutral near $65K. No buying fuel.
New investor realized cap sits near yearly lows and STH SOPR holds below 1.0. Early stabilization; watch for SOPR reclaiming 1.0 to confirm.
