Deep Bitcoin on-chain analysis: supply dynamics, holder behavior, exchange flows, and key indicators. Actionable BTC insights from Adler AM.
STH Profitability Ratio tracks if recent BTC buyers are in profit. A 1.0 cross signals a regime shift - learn the rules and filter false signals.
🎧 Morning Brief #125- audio debate on today’s market setup Morning Brief 1250:00/404.3493881× The last active selling pressure signal from the Sell-side Risk Ratio was recorded in
UTXO Age Bands show each cohort's cost basis by holding duration. Learn to read rising vs. falling bands, spot support levels, and filter false signals.
Bitcoin LTH Realized Supply at 8.05M BTC, Z-Score 2.66, down 5.5% from peak. Cycle comparison with C2016 and C2020 - key signals for March 2026.
STH and LTH Realized Price are the two cost-basis layers that define bull and bear structure in Bitcoin. Learn the crossover signal, current levels, and how to trade each zone.`
BTC trades 24% below STH realized price ($88.9K) while LTH cost basis holds at $52.9K. On-chain redistribution structure, key levels and triggers.
STH Realized Price = avg cost basis of coins held under 155 days. Above it = bull structure. Below = bear. Formula, live data, 4 cycle examples.
STH SOPR below 1.0 for 7 of 8 days signals sustained loss realization. Cohort cost basis at ~$89K vs. market price ~$67K - key supply zone to watch.
An anomalous BTC outflow was recorded this week: -31,900 BTC in a single day, which historically corresponds to large-scale accumulation. At the same time, stablecoin netflow turned negative - liquidity began leaving exchanges alongside BTC.
The Sharpe Ratio is in deeply negative territory (-63 on the 365d, -287 on the fast version), and the MVRV Z-Score is at 0.49 - below its historical mean. The market is not paying for risk: risk-adjusted returns are negative, and network valuation is neutral but does not provide a buy signal.
Supply in Loss has broken through the historically significant capitulation zone (-46%), while ETF netflow has returned to positive territory for the first time in five weeks. The question is whether this is a reversal or a bull trap.
This brief covers the buildup of Bitcoin exchange supply over the past 45 days. As long as cumulative netflow remains positive, the potential for sustained price growth stays limited.
