Long-term holders have been reducing their positions for seven consecutive weeks, but bitcoin’s price continues to rise. LTH SOPR remains above 1 for the second week, holders are taking profits, and demand is absorbing the incoming supply.
TL;DR
The reduction in long-term holders’ positions has yet to hinder bitcoin’s rise. We examine the scale of profit-taking and the signal that would indicate demand can no longer keep up with supply.
Bitcoin Weekly LTH Position Change
From February through early August, the long-term holder position change metric remained positive. In May, LTH added 1.2 million BTC. The metric turned negative on August 17 and has remained there for seven consecutive weeks. On September 28, it stood at -73.4K BTC, compared with -1.1K BTC a week earlier.
For comparison, the metric fell to -1.07 million BTC in November 2025. The current reduction in positions remains considerably smaller. If negative readings reach hundreds of thousands of BTC again while the price stops rising, it would signal that the market is struggling to absorb supply from experienced holders.
Bitcoin Weekly LTH SOPR
From February through August, LTH SOPR was below 1 most of the time, meaning the value of coins being moved was below their cost basis. The metric is now above that threshold. On September 21, it rose to 1.24, its highest level since January, and since September 28, LTH SOPR has stood at 1.18. This corresponds to an 18% realized profit relative to the cost basis of the coins moved.
Together with the first chart, this indicates that holders are reducing their positions as the price rises and taking profits.
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FAQ
Does a reduction in long-term holders’ positions mean they are selling on exchanges? No, not necessarily. The metric reflects changes in this group’s holdings but does not confirm that every coin was sold.
Does LTH SOPR above 1 mean all long-term holders are in profit? No. It shows the result for coins that have been moved, with their cost basis determined by their previous movement.
Conclusions
Long-term holders are reducing their positions for the seventh consecutive week, while LTH SOPR has indicated profit-taking over the past two weeks. The scale of the reduction remains far below late-2025 levels. A return to positive LTH Position Change would mean renewed net growth in the group’s holdings.
The main risk is an acceleration in position reductions alongside a price stall or decline.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
LTH-SOPR - Long-term holder profit/loss realization around the 1.0 breakeven threshold.
LTH vs STH Supply - Supply split between long- and short-term holders to track accumulation and distribution.
SOPR - Spent Output Profit Ratio shows whether moved coins realize profit or loss.
Supply in Profit - Share of circulating supply in profit as a cycle-phase and euphoria gauge.
Holder Behavior - All holder profitability and supply-cohort charts in one view.