Market Back to Risk-Off: Stablecoins Confirm BTC Weakness
SSR Oscillator is negative again after January's attempted recovery. USDT liquidity outflows confirm: the rebound has failed.
4 min read
OnChain
Deep Bitcoin on-chain analysis: supply dynamics, holder behavior, exchange flows, and key indicators. Actionable BTC insights from Adler AM.
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Realized Losses at Luna Crash Levels: $2.3B per Day, but the Context Is Different
Realized losses on the Bitcoin network have reached Luna 2022 crash levels, however the price context is fundamentally different - the current sell-off is occurring at $67K, not $19K, which changes the interpretation of the signal.
4 min read
Mining Under Pressure: Cango Sold 4,451 BTC for $305M
Bitcoin miner capitulation signals: difficulty -14%, Puell Multiple 30DMA <0.8, Cango sold 4,451 BTC. Hashrate drops, exchange flows stay stable.
5 min read
Drawdown -46%: Bear Market Enters Deep Phase, Price at Realized Price Boundary
The bear market ongoing since November 2025 has entered a deep phase after Friday's crash with a -46% drawdown. Price has approached the 1.25x Realized Price Band, which historically served as the boundary between correction and capitulation.
4 min read
$688M Long Liquidations: 2026 High Amid STH Capitulation
On-chain and derivatives are signaling capitulation in sync: STH are realizing extreme losses, while long liquidation dominance has reached the 2026 high. Historically, such extremes have formed local bottoms.
3 min read
STH Under Heavy Pressure: MVRV Signals Capitulation
Short-term holders are realizing losses and sitting on average 25% below their cost basis.
3 min read
Reserves Reversing: +34K BTC Returned to Exchanges from Lows
Exchange reserves reversed from lows and increased by 34K BTC over two weeks. Supply growth amid weak price action is a negative signal for short-term dynamics.
3 min read
Unrealised Loss Hits 22%: Pressure Builds, but No Capitulation Yet
Unrealised losses tripled since January, SOPR Ratio dropped 40% from peaks - market in mid-cycle stress phase, but no signs of mass capitulation.
3 min read
Fed and On-Chain Flows: Why Risk Is Decreasing
The Fed left rates unchanged, rhetoric remained hawkish - the market did not see a quick "pivot." Against this backdrop, STH Realized Cap continues to decline and has dropped below $600B (approximately $599.8B).
3 min read
Net Realized P/L at Zero: June 2022 Pattern Repeats
Bitcoin is entering a zone that preceded the main capitulation phase in 2022. Net Realized P/L has dropped 97% from peaks and reached near-zero levels - exactly as it did before the decline from $30K to $16K.
4 min read
+17K BTC to Exchanges in 2 Days: The $90K Breakdown Was Premeditated
The $90K zone breakdown was accompanied by anomalous exchange inflows - sellers prepared in advance. Now SOPR=1.0 acts as resistance, not support.
4 min read
$90K - STH Defense Line: Hold or Capitulation
Price is testing the $89.8-90K zone - the cost basis of the freshest buyers. Holding this level is critical for stabilization; a breakdown means two cohorts go underwater simultaneously.
3 min read