🎧 Morning Brief #230 - audio debate
LTH SOPR remains below 1 at 0.92, even though the average cost basis of the entire long-term holder cohort is still well below the market price. This means that only some of the LTH coins currently moving, those with a higher cost basis, are realizing losses, not the entire cohort.
TL;DR
LTH SOPR below 1.0 does not mean the entire long-term holder cohort is under pressure. The average LTH cost basis is $49.3K, while Bitcoin trades at $64.3K, so most of the cohort remains in profit. The main stress is now concentrated among STHs, whose cost basis is above the market price.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders SOPR
LTH SOPR shows whether long-term holder coins are moving at a profit or a loss. A reading above 1.0 indicates realized profits, while a reading below 1.0 indicates realized losses.
The 7-day average LTH SOPR currently stands at 0.92. In late July, the metric briefly moved above 1.0 and reached a local peak slightly above 1.1, but failed to hold there and returned to loss territory. It remains far from the deep capitulation zone near 0.5.
The key level remains 1.0. A sustained move back above it would mean that LTH coins currently moving are once again realizing profits on average. A drop toward 0.7 or lower would signal renewed pressure.
Bitcoin Cost Basis: STH vs LTH
Realized Price shows the average cost basis of coins held by short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs) relative to the current market price.
The LTH Cost Basis stands at $49.3K, while Bitcoin trades at $64.3K. The market price remains 30% above the average cost basis of long-term holders.
The STH Cost Basis, by contrast, stands at $67.5K, which is 5% above the current price. This means that short-term holders are below their cost basis on average and have remained underwater for three months.
The distinction between the cohorts is fundamental. With the price well above the LTH Cost Basis, long-term holders remain in profit overall, so this cannot be described as broad LTH capitulation. The main pressure is now concentrated among STHs and the portion of LTH coins with a higher cost basis.
The two charts complement each other. SOPR below 1.0 shows that some LTH coins currently moving are realizing losses. But the LTH Cost Basis at $49.3K shows that the average position of the entire cohort remains 30% in profit. The current stress therefore affects only the higher-cost portion of the long-term holder base, not the entire cohort.
FAQ
Why is LTH SOPR below 1 if the average LTH cost basis is 30% below the market price? SOPR only tracks coins that are moving now, while Realized Price describes the average cost basis of the entire cohort. Some LTH coins can therefore realize losses even when long-term holders remain in profit on average.
Which levels would signal a regime change? The first sign of improvement would be a move above the STH Cost Basis at $67.5K, returning the average short-term holder position to profit. A move in LTH SOPR above 1.0 would provide additional confirmation. The main risk lies much lower - losing the LTH Cost Basis at $49.3K would mean that the average long-term holder position is underwater.
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CONCLUSIONS
LTH SOPR at 0.92 shows that some long-term holder coins currently moving are realizing losses. But the LTH Cost Basis remains at $49.3K, 30% below Bitcoin's current price of $64.3K, so the entire LTH cohort remains in profit on average.
The main stress is concentrated among STHs. Their cost basis stands at $67.5K, which is 5% above the market price. Short-term holders have remained underwater for about three months.
The first sign of improvement would be a move above $67.5K, followed by LTH SOPR rising above 1.0. The main risk is a drop toward the LTH Cost Basis at $49.3K, where the average long-term holder position would come under pressure.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
LTH-SOPR - Long-term holder profit/loss realization around the 1.0 breakeven threshold.
Realized Price - Aggregate on-chain cost basis compared with BTC price and long-term trend.
STH-SOPR - Short-term holder profit/loss behavior around the 1.0 breakeven threshold.
LTH vs STH Supply - Supply split between long- and short-term holders to track accumulation and distribution.
Holder Behavior - All holder profitability and supply-cohort charts in one view.