Daily Bitcoin analysis focused on market structure, liquidity flows, and macro signals. Adler AM is updated 5× per week - clear insights, no noise.
Bitcoin exchange reserve hit 2,685,541 BTC as netflow spiked +8,512 BTC. Coins are on exchanges but not selling. Watch reserve reversal near $78K.
Regime Score back in bear zone. Cumulative funding hit -659 bps annual low - shorts dominate derivatives while price holds $75-79K.
Short liquidation dominance SMA(7D) hit +28.7 while OI dropped to 292K BTC. Classic squeeze signal - no new bullish leverage being built.
Bitcoin Realized Loss 7-day Sum spiked to $5.97B on Apr 24 as BTC recovered to $78K. Underwater holders exit. Key level to watch: $3B.
Bitcoin Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse recovered 136% from March lows. SMA crossover confirmed. Coinbase Premium validates spot demand shift.
BTC is approaching the STH cost basis at $82.2K - a key breakeven zone for recent buyers. Exchange inflow spread has risen from October lows, signaling easing sell pressure.
Bitcoin STH discount narrowed from -21.6% to -5.7% in April. STH-SOPR 7D returned above 1.0. Key level to watch: BTC above $83K cost basis.
Bitcoin Futures Basis 7D SMA dropped from +0.465% to +0.054% in 4 days. Funding Rate holds at -0.00945%. Derivatives signal caution.
Bitcoin Positioning Index SMA-30d hits 4-month high of 4.5. OI 30D Change at +14.5% confirms fresh leverage build, not a short squeeze.
Bitcoin 30D Net Flow hit -300K BTC in March as exchange reserves shed 105K BTC over 7 weeks. Supply contracting - watch the -50K flow threshold.
April 17 wiped $526M in shorts. OI peaked at 319K BTC and is now contracting - squeeze complete, cooldown underway.
LTH Realized Supply surged from 5.26M to 8.32M BTC in 3 months. But LTH SOPR fell below 1.0 - watch the March low at 0.798 as the key level.
