Bitcoin STH discount narrowed from -21.6% to -5.7% in April. STH-SOPR 7D returned above 1.0. Key level to watch: BTC above $83K cost basis.
Bitcoin Futures Basis 7D SMA dropped from +0.465% to +0.054% in 4 days. Funding Rate holds at -0.00945%. Derivatives signal caution.
Bitcoin Positioning Index SMA-30d hits 4-month high of 4.5. OI 30D Change at +14.5% confirms fresh leverage build, not a short squeeze.
Bitcoin 30D Net Flow hit -300K BTC in March as exchange reserves shed 105K BTC over 7 weeks. Supply contracting - watch the -50K flow threshold.
April 17 wiped $526M in shorts. OI peaked at 319K BTC and is now contracting - squeeze complete, cooldown underway.
LTH Realized Supply surged from 5.26M to 8.32M BTC in 3 months. But LTH SOPR fell below 1.0 - watch the March low at 0.798 as the key level.
Realized Cap dropped 3.23% since Jan 2026. Growth Rate 365DMA negative all 105 days. Outflow slowing in April - reversal signal to watch.
Bull-Bear Structure Index returns above baseline while P/L sentiment stays negative. Recovery phase confirmed - full bull regime not yet.
Bitcoin ETF Realized Price hits $74,232 - the break-even level for ETF holders. STH Cost Basis at $83,734 remains key resistance to watch.
BTC futures OI dropped from +8.9% to -7.2% in two weeks. Funding flipped negative across Binance, Bybit and OKX. Spot holds above $70K.
Exchange Netflow SMA-7D rebounded from -15,216 BTC to near zero. ETF flows recovered to +1,835 BTC after the April 7 drop.
Net Taker Volume is back above zero and liquidation pressure has eased, but Bitcoin still lacks confirmation of a full market reversal.
