Bitcoin insights, price analysis, and market signals from Adler AM. Weekly context, on-chain data, and actionable BTC research for investors and traders.
STH realized-cap share fell to 23%, a multi-year low, while LTH share hit 52%. Supply is aging into strong hands, but demand has not yet returned
Bitcoin inflows near multi-year lows; Netflow neutral near zero. Exchange flows don't confirm selling - watch inflows and Netflow rise together.
MVRV Z-Score at multi-year lows but never went negative: Bitcoin is undervalued, not capitulated. Realized P/L turned positive as selling eases.
Coinbase Premium Index at -0.042 after 78 days below zero, while weekly US spot ETF flows return to +$439M. ETF cohort still 22% underwater.
Realized volatility sits in the bottom 10% since 2016 while OI/market cap falls for 21 days. Leverage is exiting; watch the 200DMA at 72,666.
Stablecoin net flow has stayed negative for 35 days while BTC exchange flows sit neutral near $65K. No buying fuel.
New investor realized cap sits near yearly lows and STH SOPR holds below 1.0. Early stabilization; watch for SOPR reclaiming 1.0 to confirm.
Bitcoin LTH supply hit a record 16.34M BTC, with 371K absorbed in 30 days, while CDD 30D stays low at 313M. Scarcity is building, demand is not.
Bitcoin Regime Score sits at +34.7 with component agreement at 79%. Bullish regime confirmed; watch a move back above +50 or a drop below zero.
Taker Order Pressure flipped to +4.1 while Liquidation Pressure sits at -55.2: the 3.1% rally is real demand, not a short squeeze.
Bitcoin Adjusted NUPL is near -0.13, underwater for six weeks. STH, LTH and aggregate converge; a sustained move above zero confirms a turn.
BTC open interest fell 12% in 24h and the pressure index broke below its 30-day average — deleveraging, not new shorts. Watch the 58 reclaim.
