The bear market ongoing since November 2025 has entered a deep phase after Friday's crash with a -46% drawdown. Price has approached the 1.25x Realized Price Band, which historically served as the boundary between correction and capitulation.
Unrealised losses tripled since January, SOPR Ratio dropped 40% from peaks - market in mid-cycle stress phase, but no signs of mass capitulation.
Today's FOMC is the key macro trigger, while BTC's internal structure has already improved over recent days. If financial conditions do not tighten, the bounce may solidify, but if the dollar and yields strengthen, the market will quickly return to defensive mode.
New 30-day pressure low, but price held. Buyers absorbing supply at key support.
Bitcoin is entering a zone that preceded the main capitulation phase in 2022. Net Realized P/L has dropped 97% from peaks and reached near-zero levels - exactly as it did before the decline from $30K to $16K.
Trend Pulse shifted from Neutral to Bear - both signals (14D return and SMA30 vs SMA200) are negative. Quarterly return of -19% confirms macro weakness without signs of extreme capitulation.
Price is testing the $89.8-90K zone - the cost basis of the freshest buyers. Holding this level is critical for stabilization; a breakdown means two cohorts go underwater simultaneously.
Sellers have regained control on derivatives after several weeks of buyer dominance, while US spot is not providing counter-demand - both signals point to a risk-off regime.
Overheated sentiment in the 80% zone ended with a $205M long liquidation cascade and a regime change.
STH discount has narrowed to minimum - price has nearly caught up with cost basis. This is a decision zone: either a return to premium or a new wave of pressure.
BTC price is below the average purchase price of short-term investors, putting them at a loss. Both charts show the same picture: when price approaches the STH breakeven point, the market will face a wave of sellers looking to exit at zero.
Bitcoin realized volatility fell to 23.6%. Market compression suggests elevated breakout risk. Data-driven analysis of volatility and price range structure.
