Bitcoin market structure analysis: trend shifts, key levels, liquidity zones, and positioning signals. Clear BTC structure insights from Adler AM.
The price has recovered to $64.6K, but two flow indicators do not confirm an influx of fresh demand. The Demand-to-Issuance Ratio and Net Age Flow are recovering
Bitcoin's Profit/Loss Stress Score is back above 70 at 71.5, with most supply underwater. Weekly momentum is turning up - watch the 70 level.
STH realized-cap share fell to 23%, a multi-year low, while LTH share hit 52%. Supply is aging into strong hands, but demand has not yet returned
MVRV Z-Score at multi-year lows but never went negative: Bitcoin is undervalued, not capitulated. Realized P/L turned positive as selling eases.
Coinbase Premium Index at -0.042 after 78 days below zero, while weekly US spot ETF flows return to +$439M. ETF cohort still 22% underwater.
Realized volatility sits in the bottom 10% since 2016 while OI/market cap falls for 21 days. Leverage is exiting; watch the 200DMA at 72,666.
Bitcoin Regime Score sits at +34.7 with component agreement at 79%. Bullish regime confirmed; watch a move back above +50 or a drop below zero.
Bitcoin Adjusted NUPL is near -0.13, underwater for six weeks. STH, LTH and aggregate converge; a sustained move above zero confirms a turn.
BTC open interest fell 12% in 24h and the pressure index broke below its 30-day average — deleveraging, not new shorts. Watch the 58 reclaim.
Bitcoin STH realized pressure flips to buyers at the lows while price holds the $61.6K cohort floor. Watch a reclaim of $71K to confirm.
Bitcoin futures moved back above spot for the first time in a month and positioning turned green — early signs of returning risk appetite.
Bitcoin exchange inflows are 50% above February while SOPR stays below 1.0, signaling heavier supply pressure and realized losses.
